July, 2006





No Good, Rotten and Rigged Casinos! 

The big providers have plenty of data and they KNOW that based on X number of dollars deposited the yield will = X.

Think of it in terms of a life insurance actuary. Those guys can figure out with incredible accuracy, who's gonna die, when, what sex, of what, etc., etc..

I believe it's the same sort of thing here. They don't know if you are going to be the one that dies in the casino or lives, and they don't much care! They just know that they programmed the casino to payout X dollars on X deposits. Not by cheating, it's just the best replication they can reproduce of a land type game.

They have averages on their BJ and other table games, and KNOW what the RGN will produce a over a certain number of plays. They don't need to screw with it. We all know with slots that it is simply a matter of hoping you're the one pulling the lever when it's time for the thing to dump. Depending on how you want to describe it; you could say that slots are programmed to payout x number of dollars, OR another term that would be acceptable, is Rigged to payout x number of dollars, because it is!

We know the odds are against us, and we play them hoping for that big win. We do it because it's fun, and many times you will hit smaller pots, win a little on a given session, and there’s always a chance for that big one that will change your life!

So, why are there so many questions about this.

I think there are two areas to consider.

1} In general, all the serious questions revolve around BJ and the RNGs that control them. Slots and Video Poker aren't questioned that often for the reasons discussed above. This gets tricky, but I'm going to try to make some sense of it all..

The RNG doesn't know that 12, 15, 20 straight wins for the dealer is a bit unrealistic compared a land casino. It doesn't care if you have 5 dollar bet, or a 500 hundred dollar bet up, cause nothing is calculated on that one hand, but rather on hundreds of  thousands of hands, and 100s of thousands of dollars in wagers, probably millions. Your 500.00 bet is a miniscule number in the Big Picture. Although it is a Big deal to you personally if you loose about 8 of those 500 shots straight, but the size of the bet was not really a factor in my opinion.

You might say, ok then, rework the software so it can't do that? Right? Make it so you still have an appropriate and accepted edge as in a land casino, but make it play more like a land casino. Don't allow it to have these crazy streaks that are so unrealistic. Why can't they do that, you might ask?

Well, the answer is simple,... they'd have to "RIG IT"!  And, if they rigged it to create the realism we'd like to see and feel, they'd have to "RIG" another area of it to keep the house edge where it rightly, and fairly should be in order for them to turn an honest profit. The end result would then be a completely predetermined and “RIGGED” game.

There's not a easy solution to this. If they allow it to be TRULY random, it's not ALWAYS going to act like a real deck game. There will be occasional unrealistic, cold hearted, good old fashioned ass whippen runs that people are going to swear on their mother's grave were produced by a rotten, no good, RIGGED casino. Right?

What are the choices then?

Rig the games and outcome of each hand?  Shit they'd probably love it! It wouldn't change their profit a penny, the complaints of this would go away, and everyone would feel like they had a Fair game that fell within the "Expectations" that you read about all the time from the bean counters! See what I mean? 

The proof of  non rigging is the in complaints about them being rigged! 
If these types of complaints stop, Then I'll become suspicious that they are in fact "Rigging" the table games! 

I think the evidence of  NO RIGGING is also when a casino has money problems.

How can this happen? Impossible right? If the games are set up, rigged and the casino is tuned to retain 40, 50, 60% of the deposits after paying everyone out, how can a casino have money problems?

Simple really, they aren't rigged and the operator can't tweak it and the provider won't risk it. {The Big Providers, that is}

We've taken a lot crap for being supportive of RTG in the last few months. Well, I feel that RTG itself  is fine. Now I'm not saying lets make Mr. Staw a Saint, or Knight him, but the guy had the courage to close up a few shops and foot the bill the best he can out of RTGs pocket. I rather doubt RTGs pockets were as deep as MGs were when they bailed out Tropika, and MG took a long time to do it. RTG needs to make a better effort in the area of ownership of the casinos, but the software itself seems to be a player favorite.

So, #2} If the RNG is fair and the casino is tuned to retain a fair  40,50,60% or so of the deposits, How the hell do these things go under? They can't right? Any fool can operate an online casino right?..... Wrong.

60% of nothing is still nothing. They still have to get players in their casino. They have to get enough of them so that the percentage is enough to cover their expenses, payroll, and what the heck, the owner deserves a return on his investment too, right? That's going to require quite a few deposits to foot the bill on all this. Correct?

Herein lies the answer to problem casinos. We'll use MG and RTG as examples since they have both encountered very similar problems. Is it MGs fault that Tropika bit the dust? No way! They provided  good casinos that if properly marketed to get players to deposit there, would make money. Same thing applies to the RTG situation.

MG and RTG are not responsible for doing the sales and marketing for the casinos. 
There is a line here!

So, what happens is this. Money Man or Woman buys a casino because it looks like it can't lose. They have NO CLUE as to how to get, and keep customers coming in there and it's not as easy as many, many people think!

They can't "RIG" the software, so they slowly go under! SEE What I mean? If they could, there would never be any failures since they would retain 100% to save their own asses! Faced with their own demise, some will be forced to close up because a reputable provider WON'T rig it for them. As a ditch effort, some will put up a RISKY bonus plan, cross their fingers, and hope the combination of players that they get will be compulsive enough to lose it all! If it doesn't work, then there is a monumental problem, and the players usually suffer the consequences, along with the marketing affiliates!

Another Problem is, Online Gamblers are not cut out of the material that most land lubbers are. I think onliners are more calculating, maybe a little smarter overall. Many are looking at it as a tool to try to make a little money. Sort of a second job! On the flip side, the MAJORITY of  land casino players are there for balls to wall recreation and entertainment. Their mindset is different. Many go to Vegas thinking we will take this much to gamble with, and when it's gone, it's gone. That was fun, now whose performing at Caesar's tonight!

The loss is more expected, and a win just makes great memories of the trip! I am talking the masses, not the exception. The FEW that go to land casinos these days that  do have the smarts to beat the house, won't be there long. They would have to really keep on the move to make a living at it these days. This is a dying profession. Also, the casinos are emailing pictures of the pros back and forth to each other to guard against the professional. 
I'll bet there are some pros that actually use disguises!

The point is, the motivation online and on land are not quite the same. When you add all this up, owning an online casino can be just as big a loser, as it can be a winner.

Too many casinos is also contributing to plight. There are so many good deals for the players that there is almost no reason to go back to the same casino over and over again. Just keep your eyes peeled, and Friday Morning a few new ones seem to pop up! The longer a casino is around, the tougher it gets to find new players for it since the new players coming in for the first time have so many choices compared to just a few years ago. 
The expansion of new casinos is outpacing the influx of new players. The industry growth is probably ok. More fresh dollars are coming in, but instead of those dollars getting split 4 ways, they are getting split 20 ways, so the income per unit drops. What do you do? Open a new casino of course! Attract the new, and the faithful old players all over again.

The situation will be self correcting, I think. Eventually the Strong organizations will survive to dominate, and the weak will dissipate into cyber space!

Are they rigged to beat specific players, though? I really don't think so! 
At least not the Major Software Brands!

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